Iranian
revenge in US election
Iran
may well have calculated that it's better off with a Democrat in the White House
and not a Republican like President Donald Trump.
Logically
-- and Iran's leaders are intensely pragmatic in that far-sighted way -- Tehran
will likely calibrate its vowed "harsh revenge" response to the
killing of Qasem Soleimani in a bid to cost Trump re-election.
Part
of that calculation is likely to have Iran focus on targets inside the United
States as well as in the Middle East, not just to embarrass Trump but to limit
regional escalation.
Hours
after the strike Trump said his intention was "to stop a war. We did not
take action to start a war." But the President's actions may soon catch up
with his words at home -- especially when fighting an election campaign.
And
the President should be aware that while Iran may well start to settle the
score quickly, it is also a master of serving revenge up cold.
During a bout of Middle East tension in 1988, the USS
Vincennes on patrol in the Persian Gulf accidentally shot down an Iranian
civilian passenger jet, killing all 290 people on board.
Tehran's
leaders waited nine months for revenge, widely suspected of having a pipe bomb
detonated under the Vincennes captain's car, narrowly missing maiming his wife.
The advantage of attacking inside the US limits the likelihood of its regional
neighbors escalating hostilities, and that's important for two reasons. One,
Iran is likely to lose in a regional conflict and, two, the optics are better;
revenge is directly aimed at the culprit of the attack, limiting tempers
flaring in the region.
For sure the world has moved on a lot since 1988, and
post-9/11 the US is far more attuned to catching international terrorists on
its soil, but the idea for Iran will likely remain the same. Pick a soft and
symbolic target that might embarrass the US President; a cyber-attack can now
cause as much disruption as a pipe bomb.
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (CNN)
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